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The 2015 Seismogeologic Prediction and Analysis Training Class Brought to a Successful Close

2016/6/7 16:22:44

In order that earthquake analysis and prediction personnel can more effectively combine and apply seismogelogic achievements during seismic situation tracing and judgment, thus raising the level of earthquake prediction and seismic situation tracing, the 2015 “basic theory and methodology for seismogeologic analysis and prediction” training class was smoothly held in Huailai County, Hebei Province from October 25 to October 31.

Under the entrustment of Monitoring and Forecasting Department, CEA, this training was organized by Institute of Geology, CEA. Nine lectures and one-day field practice teaching were arranged. The trainees are 48 predictors from prediction departments of provincial earthquake administrations and organizations directly under CEA.

Deputy Director Che Shi was present and spoke at the short opening ceremony held on the morning of October 26. Deputy Director Xu Xiwei described in details the purpose, significance and course arrangement of the training class.

On the morning of October 26, researcher Wen Xueze gave a lecture titled “seismotectonics and asperity theory of category-3 faults”. He introduced us in simple language the seismotectonic characteristics of category-3 faults, helped us understand specific tectonic conditions for strong earthquake preparation and occurrence in different dynamic environments, and provided relevant seismotectonic bases for judgment of seismogenic structure, scientific arrangement of observation systems, analysis of layout reasonableness of existing observation systems, and explanation and observation of abnormal changes.

The afternoon of October 26 was divided into two time frames. In the first time frame, Academician Ma Jin gave a lecture titled “exploration of dangerous instability stage – a possible breakthrough of earthquake prediction”. She expressed knowing the spatial-temporal evolution rule of deformation field, recognizing current deformation stage and seeking deformation characteristics of sub-instability stage is one of key links. Collaboration of faulting is a symbol of a sub-instability stage. Through the latest laboratory results, she displayed evidence of accelerated collaboration before instability. In the end, she pointed out scientific problems and the direction of tackling of key problems. In the second time frame, researcher Fu Bihong gave lectures titled “earth observation technology and neotectonic application and research” and “research of Late Cenozoic tectonic deformation and river evolution process in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and surrounding areas”. Through clear images and vivid explanation, he informed us of the formation process and mechanism of typical terrains and landforms in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as well as their relations with occurrence of strong earthquake.

On October 27, researcher Xu Xiwei introduced in details “active tectonics and earthquake”, starting from basic concepts and field observation facts of earthquake in such aspects as current tectonic movement characteristics and earthquakes of plates,   zoning characteristics and types of active tectonics in Chinese mainland and anomaly monitoring test in the morning and afternoon.

On October 28, researcher Chen Lichun and researcher Jiang Hanchao led all students to carry out one-day field teaching practice. The locations of practice are Huajialing observation point and Nihewan observation point. Before closure of the one day’s laborious practice, they took a group photo in front of Nihewan ancient human sites.

On the morning of October 29, Academician Zhang Peizhen gave a lecture titled “dynamic process of active blocks in Chinese mainland and their boundary belts”. He introduced the tectonic background of main strong earthquake regions of China and the control effect of active blocks of Chinese mainland on strong earthquake. By taking North-South seismic belt for example, he also introduced the dynamic process of boundary belts of active blocks.

On the afternoon of October 29, associate research Jiang Guoyan gave a lecture titled “apply Coulomb failure criterion to assess seismic risk of active faults”. The lecture centered on mid and long-term seismic risk assessment theory and method based on Coulomb failure criterion, and calculated and assessed seismic risk of fault zones by taking Xianshuihe fault zone for example.

On the morning of October 30, researcher Ma Shengli gave lectures titled “tectonophysical experimental research of earthquake recurrence and earthquake precursor mechanism”, “fault slip instability and strong earthquake recurrence” and “instability nucleation process and seismic precursor”, and displayed a series of latest experimental results.

The afternoon of October 30 was divided into two time frames. In the first time frame, researcher Shan Xinjian gave a lecture titled “earth observation technology and characteristic study of seismogenic faults”, introduced the general situation of earth observation technology, and its application in characteristic study of seismogenic faults; in the second time frame, associate researcher Ma Hongsheng gave a lecture titled “development history and outlook of earthquake prediction and forecasting in China”, introduced and summarized the four development stages of earthquake prediction and forecasting in details, and put forth his requirements for future development.

Whenever a lecture was completed, free question asking and discussion was arranged for a certain time. The students eagerly asked questions with regard to the problems they encountered during work. All speakers answered the questions in details.

At the training class closing ceremony held at 5 pm October 30, Director Jiang Hanchao made a speech on behalf of organizer Institute of Geology. On behalf of Institute of Geology, he expressed thanks to Monitoring and Forecasting Department for entrusting the mission of seismogeologic training class to Institute of Geology, to every teacher for their painstaking preparation and their wonderful introduction in class, to every student for their trust and support to our work during the one-week training and wished all the students smooth learning and work in the future.

By then, this training class came to a successful conclusion.